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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 45

Chicago Bears 6 – Minnesota Vikings 19

What Actually Happened

(4:26) (Shotgun) 17-T.Bagent pass incomplete deep left to 13-T.Scott (7-B.Murphy).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.14 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 45, worth -2.21 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 12, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model