4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 12 at the 55

Chicago Bears 6 – Minnesota Vikings 19

What Actually Happened

(14:20) 16-T.Gill punts 38 yards to MIN 17, Center-48-P.Scales. 4-B.Powell to MIN 32 for 15 yards (53-T.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO -1.10 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.00 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model