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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 1 at the 39

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(8:34) 8-K.Cousins up the middle to CHI 38 for 1 yard (91-Y.Ngakoue).

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.20 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 39, worth -2.40 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 48, worth -3.06 EP
PUNT -0.50 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model