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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 4

Chicago Bears 0 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 8-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-T.Gill.

The Three Options

GO +2.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.25 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 4, worth +0.57 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP