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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 14 at the 29

New Orleans Saints 7 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(:22) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.32 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 29, worth -0.43 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.05 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model