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New Orleans Saints

HC Dennis Allen
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Houston Texans

HC DeMeco Ryans
Sunday 2023-10-15 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

NO
43.0%
HOU
57.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NO offense: -0.095 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • NO defense: -0.240 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (1st in the league)
  • HOU offense: -0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • HOU defense: -0.055 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • C.J. Stroud (HOU): +0.122 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NO 21
–
HOU 22
Projected margin: HOU by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

NO

J.T. Gray S Out Hamstring
Lonnie Johnson CB Out Hamstring
Juwan Johnson TE Out Calf
Adam Prentice FB Out Knee
Landon Young T Out Hip
Andrus Peat G Questionable Groin

HOU

Christian Harris LB Questionable Concussion
Robert Woods WR Questionable Ribs
Tank Dell WR Questionable Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NO 13
–
HOU 20

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:45 TD HOU (3:45) 7-C.Stroud pass short right to 86-D.Schultz for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NO 0 – HOU 6
  • Q1 00:18 TD NO (:18) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep middle to 22-R.Shaheed for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 6 – HOU 7
  • Q2 10:30 FG HOU (10:30) 15-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. NO 7 – HOU 10
  • Q2 02:59 TD HOU (2:59) (Shotgun) 7-C.Stroud pass short middle to 2-R.Woods for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NO 7 – HOU 16
  • Q2 00:22 FG NO (:22) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 10 – HOU 17
  • Q3 07:03 FG HOU (7:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston. NO 10 – HOU 20
  • Q3 02:21 FG NO (2:21) 19-B.Grupe 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley. NO 13 – HOU 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 31%

    (11:21) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q1 NO 4th & 6 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 74%

    (6:45) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (10:30) 15-K.Fairbairn 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 6 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:13) 39-L.Hedley punts 42 yards to HOU 35, Center-49-Z.Wood, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NO 4th & 14 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 83%

    (:22) 19-B.Grupe 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 19 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (11:40) 39-L.Hedley punts 41 yards to HOU 29, Center-49-Z.Wood. 2-R.Woods to HOU 29 for no gain (27-I.Yiadom).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:08) 11-C.Johnston punts 63 yards to NO 7, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-37-D.Ross.

  • Q3 NO 4th & 10 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:17) 39-L.Hedley punts 43 yards to 50, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 98%

    (7:03) 15-K.Fairbairn 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (:49) 11-C.Johnston punts 46 yards to NO 31, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

    (11:10) 19-B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 29%

    (8:18) 11-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to NO 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-35-J.Hansen.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 4 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%

    (4:37) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 41-A.Kamara to HOU 13 for 2 yards (0-S.Griffin, 53-B.Cashman).

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 12 at the 52 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 31%

    (2:48) 11-C.Johnston punts 37 yards to NO 15, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 22-R.Shaheed.

  • Q4 NO 4th & 10 at the 24 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.72 EP
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 89%

    (:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Thomas (21-S.Nelson) [53-B.Cashman]. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left intended for 13-M.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson [53-B.Cashman] at HOU 2. 21-S.Nelson pushed ob at HOU 2 for no gain (13-M.Thomas).