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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 93

New Orleans Saints 10 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(9:17) 39-L.Hedley punts 43 yards to 50, Center-49-Z.Wood, fair catch by 2-R.Woods.

The Three Options

GO -3.39 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.54 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 93, worth -5.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model