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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 52

Houston Texans 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(11:21) 11-C.Johnston punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.23 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.29 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 52, worth -2.59 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model