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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 11

New Orleans Saints 13 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(11:10) 19-B.Grupe 29 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.09 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -1.10 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model