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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 53

Houston Texans 20 – New Orleans Saints 13

What Actually Happened

(8:18) 11-C.Johnston punts 39 yards to NO 14, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU-35-J.Hansen.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.48 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 53, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 15, worth -0.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.59 EP