4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 24

New Orleans Saints 13 – Houston Texans 20

What Actually Happened

(:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 13-M.Thomas (21-S.Nelson) [53-B.Cashman]. The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep left intended for 13-M.Thomas INTERCEPTED by 21-S.Nelson [53-B.Cashman] at HOU 2. 21-S.Nelson pushed ob at HOU 2 for no gain (13-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +3.15 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -0.10 EP
KICK +2.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -0.31 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.72 EP