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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 6 at the 34

New Orleans Saints 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:45) 19-B.Grupe 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-39-L.Hedley.

The Three Options

GO +0.30 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.07 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model