4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 37

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(1:37) 8-S.Martin punts 27 yards to NYG 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 20-E.Gray.

The Three Options

GO +0.46 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.39 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
What Happened
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP