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New York Giants

HC Brian Daboll
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BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2023-10-15 · 20:20 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 15.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

NYG
18.8%
BUF
81.2%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYG offense: -0.113 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.159 vs Tyrod Taylor (NYG) -0.071 EPA/dropback (NYG starting Tyrod Taylor in place of Daniel Jones)
  • BUF defense: -0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • NYG defense: +0.125 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

NYG 17
–
BUF 30
Projected margin: BUF by 13 Projected total: 47

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

NYG

Daniel Jones QB Out Neck
Azeez Ojulari DE Out Ankle
Matt Peart T Out Shoulder
John Michael Schmitz C Out Shoulder
Andrew Thomas T Out Hamstring
D.J. Davidson DT Questionable Knee
Evan Neal T Questionable Ankle
Saquon Barkley RB Questionable Ankle
Gary Brightwell RB Questionable Ankle
Shane Lemieux G Questionable Groin
Micah McFadden LB Questionable Ankle
Darren Waller TE Questionable Groin

BUF

Dane Jackson CB Questionable Foot
Dalton Kincaid TE Questionable Concussion
Dawson Knox TE Questionable Wrist

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 9
–
BUF 14

Prediction missed by 8 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:22 FG NYG (3:22) 9-G.Gano 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 3 – BUF 0
  • Q2 05:12 FG NYG (5:12) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 6 – BUF 0
  • Q4 15:00 TD BUF (15:00) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 11-D.Harty for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG-24-D.Belton was injured during the play. NYG 6 – BUF 6
  • Q4 10:38 FG NYG (10:38) 9-G.Gano 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan. NYG 9 – BUF 7
  • Q4 03:55 TD BUF (3:55) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short right to 85-Q.Morris for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN [41-M.McFadden]. NYG 9 – BUF 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:13) 8-S.Martin punts 52 yards to NYG 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 20-E.Gray pushed ob at NYG 24 for 4 yards (39-C.Lewis).

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 3 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (12:20) 6-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to BUF 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (3:22) 9-G.Gano 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 37
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 63%

    (1:37) 8-S.Martin punts 27 yards to NYG 10, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 20-E.Gray.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 12 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (15:00) 6-J.Gillan punts 64 yards to BUF 28, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 11-D.Harty to BUF 31 for 3 yards (24-D.Belton; 44-N.McCloud).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 14 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (13:56) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to NYG 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 20-E.Gray pushed ob at NYG 35 for 10 yards (25-T.Dodson). Return credited to NYG 25 (start of return, foul occurred during kick). PENALTY on NYG-30-D.Holmes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 25.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 11 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (11:48) 6-J.Gillan punts 51 yards to BUF 35, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 7 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 70%

    (9:39) 2-T.Bass 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 15 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 87%

    (5:12) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 11 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 44%

    (9:59) 6-J.Gillan punts 33 yards to BUF 11, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 1 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 96%

    (10:38) 9-G.Gano 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 8 at the 62 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (1:52) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass incomplete deep left to 86-D.Slayton (47-C.Benford).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 9 at the 36 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 65%

    (1:29) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 5 at the 27 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.60 EP
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 83%

    (:22) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short middle to 13-J.Hyatt to BUF 15 for 12 yards (43-T.Bernard).