Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 73

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(13:56) 8-S.Martin punts 48 yards to NYG 25, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 20-E.Gray pushed ob at NYG 35 for 10 yards (25-T.Dodson). Return credited to NYG 25 (start of return, foul occurred during kick). PENALTY on NYG-30-D.Holmes, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NYG 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.34 EP
66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 73, worth -4.06 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model