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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 72

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Giants 0

What Actually Happened

(14:13) 8-S.Martin punts 52 yards to NYG 20, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 20-E.Gray pushed ob at NYG 24 for 4 yards (39-C.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.30 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 72, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 30, worth -1.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model