4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 7 at the 34

Buffalo Bills 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(9:39) 2-T.Bass 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.35 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 34, worth -1.55 EP
KICK +0.67 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 44, worth -2.19 EP
PUNT -0.27 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model