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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 24

New York Giants 3 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(5:12) 9-G.Gano 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.10 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 34, worth -1.83 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model