4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 69

New York Giants 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 6-J.Gillan punts 54 yards to BUF 15, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 11-D.Harty.

The Three Options

GO -1.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.26 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 69, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

PUNT -1.65 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 27, worth -1.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model