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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 11

New York Giants 6 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(10:38) 9-G.Gano 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +3.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.24 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -1.07 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.52 EP