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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 36

Buffalo Bills 14 – New York Giants 9

What Actually Happened

(1:29) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +2.64 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 36, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 46, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model