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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 27

New York Giants 9 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Shotgun) 2-T.Taylor pass short middle to 13-J.Hyatt to BUF 15 for 12 yards (43-T.Bernard).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +2.20 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +2.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.92 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -0.26 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.60 EP