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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 11 at the 11

New York Giants 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 9-G.Gano 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-6-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.12 EP
  • 25% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +1.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model