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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 25

New York Jets 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(13:15) 9-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

The Three Options

GO +0.61 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.18 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.20 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 35, worth -1.69 EP
PUNT +0.10 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model