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Philadelphia Eagles

HC Nick Sirianni
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New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
Sunday 2023-10-15 · 16:25 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -6.5 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

PHI
71.7%
NYJ
28.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.206 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • PHI offense: +0.126 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • QB edge to PHI: Zach Wilson (NYJ) -0.215 vs Jalen Hurts (PHI) +0.129 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

PHI 24
–
NYJ 16
Projected margin: PHI by 8 Projected total: 40

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

PHI

Jalen Carter DT Out Ankle
Justin Evans S Out Knee
Darius Slay CB Out Knee
Quez Watkins WR Out Hamstring
Sydney Brown S Questionable Hamstring
Marlon Tuipulotu DT Questionable Triceps

NYJ

Brandin Echols CB Out Hamstring
Justin Hardee CB Out Hamstring
D.J. Reed CB Out Concussion
Ahmad Gardner CB Questionable Illness
Nick Bawden FB Questionable Calf
Micheal Clemons DE Questionable Ankle
Xavier Gipson WR Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PHI 14
–
NYJ 20

Prediction missed by 14 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 03:08 TD PHI (3:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to NYJ 1 for 2 yards (47-B.Huff, 57-C.Mosley). FUMBLES (57-C.Mosley), recovered by PHI-13-O.Zaccheaus at NYJ 1. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 6 – NYJ 0
  • Q2 13:15 FG NYJ (13:15) 9-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. PHI 7 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 05:38 TD PHI (5:38) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short right to 0-D.Swift for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-J.Franklin-Myers]. PHI 13 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 02:34 FG NYJ (2:34) 9-G.Zuerlein 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. PHI 14 – NYJ 6
  • Q2 00:02 FG NYJ (:02) 9-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. PHI 14 – NYJ 9
  • Q3 00:48 FG NYJ (:48) 9-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead. PHI 14 – NYJ 12
  • Q4 01:50 TD NYJ (1:50) 20-Bre.Hall up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PHI 14 – NYJ 18

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:00) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to PHI 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-B.Covey to PHI 9 for no gain (19-I.Charles).

  • Q1 PHI 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 98%

    (3:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to NYJ 1 for 2 yards (47-B.Huff, 57-C.Mosley). FUMBLES (57-C.Mosley), recovered by PHI-13-O.Zaccheaus at NYJ 1. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 25
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 85%

    (13:15) 9-G.Zuerlein 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 52%

    (8:32) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 83-T.Conklin ran ob at PHI 36 for 4 yards.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 16 at the 24
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 86%

    (2:34) 9-G.Zuerlein 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%

    (:02) 9-G.Zuerlein 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 14 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 31%

    (11:26) 10-B.Mann punts 41 yards to NYJ 7, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-89-J.Stoll.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 41%

    (7:15) 5-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to PHI 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

  • Q3 PHI 4th & 6 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:38) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to NYJ 49, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-22-K.Ringo. PENALTY on PHI-22-K.Ringo, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 49.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 17 at the 20
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 91%

    (:48) 9-G.Zuerlein 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-5-T.Morstead.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:12) 5-T.Morstead punts 49 yards to PHI 18, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-B.Covey to PHI 18 for no gain (52-S.Eguavoen).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 10 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 92%

    (8:17) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 65 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:53) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to PHI 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-B.Covey to PHI 20 for 9 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

  • Q4 PHI 4th & 8 at the 73 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 41%

    (1:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep middle to 6-D.Smith (3-J.Whitehead).