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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 40

New York Jets 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(8:32) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 83-T.Conklin ran ob at PHI 36 for 4 yards.

The Three Options

GO +0.34 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.85 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.88 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 52% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 48% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model