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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 18 at the 44

New York Jets 9 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 5-T.Morstead punts 37 yards to PHI 7, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 18-B.Covey.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.46 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.68 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.22 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model