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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 89

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Jets 9

What Actually Happened

(5:38) 10-B.Mann punts 40 yards to NYJ 49, Center-45-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-22-K.Ringo. PENALTY on PHI-22-K.Ringo, Kick Catch Interference, 15 yards, enforced at NYJ 49.

The Three Options

GO -2.44 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.47 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 89, worth -5.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.66 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 46, worth -2.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model