4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 19

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Jets 12

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 4-J.Elliott 37 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-R.Lovato, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.16 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.25 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 19, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.89 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 29, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model