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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 65

New York Jets 12 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 5-T.Morstead punts 54 yards to PHI 11, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 18-B.Covey to PHI 20 for 9 yards (44-J.Sherwood).

The Three Options

GO -1.93 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.20 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 65, worth -3.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 23, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model