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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 8 at the 73

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(1:24) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep middle to 6-D.Smith (3-J.Whitehead).

The Three Options

GO -1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.55 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -3.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 31, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.47 EP