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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 3

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(3:08) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to NYJ 1 for 2 yards (47-B.Huff, 57-C.Mosley). FUMBLES (57-C.Mosley), recovered by PHI-13-O.Zaccheaus at NYJ 1. The Replay Official reviewed the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.61 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 3, worth -0.09 EP
KICK +1.59 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -1.03 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model