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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 3 at the 48
Atlanta Falcons 7 – Washington Commanders 10
What Actually Happened
(8:23) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete short right to 7-B.Robinson.
The Three Options
GO
+0.34 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.96 EP
- 49% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 48, worth -2.41 EP
KICK
-0.70 EP
- 40% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
- 60% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.45 EP
PUNT
-0.33 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
