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Washington Commanders

HC Ron Rivera
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
Sunday 2023-10-15 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 1.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

WAS
39.7%
ATL
60.3%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.105 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • ATL offense: -0.081 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • WAS on 3 more days rest than ATL
  • ATL defense: -0.039 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • QB edge to ATL: Desmond Ridder (ATL) -0.053 vs Sam Howell (WAS) -0.122 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

WAS 19
–
ATL 23
Projected margin: ATL by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

WAS

Christian Holmes CB Out Hamstring
Efe Obada DE Questionable Knee

ATL

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 24
–
ATL 16

Prediction missed by 12 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:48 FG WAS (8:48) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 3 – ATL 0
  • Q1 02:51 TD ATL (2:51) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short right to 8-K.Pitts for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on WAS-25-B.St-Juste, Defensive Holding, declined. WAS 3 – ATL 6
  • Q2 11:51 TD WAS (11:51) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 24-A.Gibson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 9 – ATL 7
  • Q2 05:24 TD WAS (5:24) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short middle to 4-C.Samuel for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 16 – ATL 7
  • Q2 01:36 FG ATL (1:36) 6-Y.Koo 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. WAS 17 – ATL 10
  • Q3 12:12 TD WAS (12:12) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell pass short right to 8-B.Robinson for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 23 – ATL 10
  • Q4 12:43 TD ATL (12:43) 9-D.Ridder pass short left to 81-J.Smith for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 24 – ATL 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 93%

    (8:48) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 14 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:11) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to ATL 22, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 23 for 1 yard (26-T.Castro-Fields, 20-J.Martin).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (13:35) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to WAS 28, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-J.Crowder to ATL 11 for 61 yards (33-T.Flowers).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 3 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 51% p(FG) 40%

    (8:23) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete short right to 7-B.Robinson.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 53%

    (7:33) (Shotgun) 14-S.Howell left tackle to ATL 39 for 4 yards (55-K.Elliss).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 13 at the 29
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 83%

    (1:36) 6-Y.Koo 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (:58) 5-T.Way punts 41 yards to ATL 44, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 21-M.Hughes to WAS 48 for 8 yards (32-T.Burgess; 20-J.Martin).

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 11 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 38%

    (:35) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to WAS 4, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-53-N.Landman.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 14 at the 67
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (8:03) 13-B.Pinion punts 52 yards to WAS 15, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 15 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (4:39) 5-T.Way punts 51 yards to ATL 19, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 95%

    (14:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short middle to 18-M.Hollins to WAS 8 for 7 yards (31-K.Curl) [96-J.Smith-Williams].

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 7 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:33) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to ATL 11, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 16 at the 86 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (3:41) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to ATL 40, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 42 for 2 yards (32-T.Burgess; 45-D.Harris).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 8 at the 56 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete deep middle to 8-K.Pitts (36-D.Johnson).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 8 at the 42 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 56%

    (2:10) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to ATL 7, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-32-T.Burgess.