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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 13 at the 29

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 6-Y.Koo 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.31 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 29, worth -1.54 EP
KICK +0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.55 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 39, worth -2.06 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model