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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 49

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Washington Commanders 17

What Actually Happened

(:35) 13-B.Pinion punts 45 yards to WAS 4, Center-49-L.McCullough, downed by ATL-53-N.Landman.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.10 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.63 EP
KICK -0.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 62% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model