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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 15

Atlanta Falcons 10 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(14:16) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass short middle to 18-M.Hollins to WAS 8 for 7 yards (31-K.Curl) [96-J.Smith-Williams].

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.06 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model