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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 7 at the 54

Washington Commanders 24 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(10:33) 5-T.Way punts 43 yards to ATL 11, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.88 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.88 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model