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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 19

Washington Commanders 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 6-J.Slye 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.94 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 19, worth -1.01 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 29, worth -1.72 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model