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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 16 at the 86

Washington Commanders 24 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(3:41) 5-T.Way punts 46 yards to ATL 40, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 42 for 2 yards (32-T.Burgess; 45-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -3.07 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.19 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 86, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 44, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model