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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 8 at the 56

Atlanta Falcons 16 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder pass incomplete deep middle to 8-K.Pitts (36-D.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +1.86 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -2.25 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model