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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 8 at the 42

Washington Commanders 24 – Atlanta Falcons 16

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to ATL 7, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, downed by WAS-32-T.Burgess.

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.98 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 42, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.54 EP