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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 4 at the 71

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(13:35) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to WAS 28, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-J.Crowder to ATL 11 for 61 yards (33-T.Flowers).

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.60 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 71, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.26 EP
What Happened
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 29, worth -1.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model