Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 13 at the 69

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-J.Camarda punts 45 yards to ATL 24, Center-97-Z.Triner. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 33 for 9 yards (8-S.Dennis). TB-26-K.Merriweather was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.80 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.55 EP
70% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 69, worth -3.69 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model