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Atlanta Falcons

4-3 HC Arthur Smith
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

3-3 HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2023-10-22 · 13:00 ET Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 37.5

Win Probability

ATL
36.2%
TB
63.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • Desmond Ridder (ATL): -0.068 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • TB offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ATL 20 13–27
–
TB 23 16–30
Projected margin: TB by 3 Projected total: 43

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 7

ATL

No players on the report.

TB

Anthony Nelson LB Questionable Concussion
Vita Vea DT Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2023 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 16
–
TB 13

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 06:52 TD ATL (6:52) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – TB 0
  • Q1 03:31 TD TB (3:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – TB 6
  • Q2 11:54 FG ATL (11:54) 6-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 10 – TB 7
  • Q2 05:17 FG TB (5:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. ATL 10 – TB 10
  • Q3 02:08 FG ATL (2:08) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 13 – TB 10
  • Q4 00:49 FG TB (:49) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. ATL 13 – TB 13
  • Q4 00:04 FG ATL (:04) 6-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 16 – TB 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 56%

    (10:46) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (2:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to TB 31, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 34 for 3 yards (51-D.Malone).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 13 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (15:00) 5-J.Camarda punts 45 yards to ATL 24, Center-97-Z.Triner. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 33 for 9 yards (8-S.Dennis). TB-26-K.Merriweather was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%

    (11:54) 6-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 6
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%

    (5:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:45) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to TB 20, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins. PENALTY on TB-30-D.Delaney, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 20.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 89
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (6:07) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to ATL 37, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 23
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EP
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 89%

    (2:08) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 14 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:49) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to ATL 7, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-27-Z.McCollum.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 76 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (2:42) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to TB 33, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 TB 4th & 18 at the 18 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%

    (:49) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

    See the full breakdown →