Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- ATL offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
- Desmond Ridder (ATL): -0.068 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- TB offense: -0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (16th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 7
ATL
No players on the report.
TB
Pulled fresh for 2023 week 7 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:52 TD ATL (6:52) (Shotgun) 9-D.Ridder left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – TB 0
- Q1 03:31 TD TB (3:31) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass deep left to 13-M.Evans for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – TB 6
- Q2 11:54 FG ATL (11:54) 6-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 10 – TB 7
- Q2 05:17 FG TB (5:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. ATL 10 – TB 10
- Q3 02:08 FG ATL (2:08) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 13 – TB 10
- Q4 00:49 FG TB (:49) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda. ATL 13 – TB 13
- Q4 00:04 FG ATL (:04) 6-Y.Koo 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion. ATL 16 – TB 13
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 TB 4th & 5 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 56%
(10:46) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36%
(2:15) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to TB 31, Center-49-L.McCullough. 83-D.Thompkins to TB 34 for 3 yards (51-D.Malone).
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Q2 TB 4th & 13 at the 69Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30%
(15:00) 5-J.Camarda punts 45 yards to ATL 24, Center-97-Z.Triner. 21-M.Hughes to ATL 33 for 9 yards (8-S.Dennis). TB-26-K.Merriweather was injured during the play.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 5 at the 5Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 37% p(FG) 98%
(11:54) 6-Y.Koo 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q2 TB 4th & 6 at the 6Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 98%
(5:17) 4-C.McLaughlin 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38%
(13:45) 13-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to TB 20, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 83-D.Thompkins. PENALTY on TB-30-D.Delaney, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at TB 20.
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Q3 TB 4th & 2 at the 89Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EPp(convert) 63%
(6:07) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to ATL 37, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.
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Q3 ATL 4th & 1 at the 23Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.02 EPp(convert) 66% p(FG) 89%
(2:08) 6-Y.Koo 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.
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Q4 TB 4th & 14 at the 54Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:49) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to ATL 7, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-27-Z.McCollum.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 76 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EPp(convert) 72%
(2:42) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to TB 33, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.
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Q4 TB 4th & 18 at the 18 late-gameChose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 21% p(FG) 93%
(:49) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.