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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 89

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(6:07) 5-J.Camarda punts 52 yards to ATL 37, Center-97-Z.Triner, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 87, worth -0.02 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 89, worth -5.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.55 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 46, worth -2.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.67 EP