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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 41

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(10:46) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right.

The Three Options

GO +0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.86 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.24 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.21 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth +0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model