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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 14 at the 54

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 5-J.Camarda punts 47 yards to ATL 7, Center-97-Z.Triner, downed by TB-27-Z.McCollum.

The Three Options

GO -1.23 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.06 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -2.86 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model