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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 76

Atlanta Falcons 13 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:42) 13-B.Pinion punts 43 yards to TB 33, Center-49-L.McCullough, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.54 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.87 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.87 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.10 EP