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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 18 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 10 – Atlanta Falcons 13

What Actually Happened

(:49) 4-C.McLaughlin 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-5-J.Camarda.

The Three Options

GO +1.34 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.78 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 18, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -0.22 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model